Onkológia 5/2011

Expected effect of vaccination using bivalent vaccine on incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer in terms of health care system in Slovak Republic

Purpose: Human papillomavirus is a dominant cause of cervical dysplasia with possible transition to cervical cancer. The main purpose of the study was to make a qualified forecast of the potential of vaccination using a bivalent vaccine on the incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer as well as disease-related mortality in the Slovak Republic. Methods: The method of evaluation was the use of the Markov model that is strictly based on either epidemiological data from official institutions such as the National Oncology Register of the Slovak Republic, Statistic Office of the Slovak Republic, or the data from health insurance companies and the opinion of the experts´ panel of the Society of Gynaecology and Obstetrics. Results: Results obtained by modelling suggest that the introduction of HPV vaccination into the national immunization programme would result in a reduction of at least 84 deaths of women during the monitored period. Every cervical cancer death averted means 31 life years saved on average. Depending on the vaccination coverage in the cohort, HPV vaccination would cause a reduction of registered cervical dysplasia by 26,900 to 131,808 cases, a reduction of registered carcinoma in situ by 1,371 to 6,714 cases, and a decrease of registered invasive cervical carcinoma by 1,645 to 8,058 cases. Conclusion: The results of the analysis confirmed that HPV vaccination in 12-year old girls has the potential to significantly reduce both the incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer and mortality due to cervical cancer, whereby this form of primary intervention is also cost-effective. Vaccination also enhances the effect of standard secondary prevention realized by age dependant screening.

Keywords: human papillomavirus, prevention, vaccination, bivalent vaccine, cervical dysplasia, cervical cancer